Afghanistan’s post-Taliban transition: the state of state-building after war

Is Afghanistan approaching unheralded success or tragic failure? It depends upon whom one asks. Several years after an international coalition and US-backed Afghan insurgents removed the ruling Islamic fundamentalist Taliban from power, experts differ as to Afghanistan’s future: will it be stability and democracy, or a return to its chaotic and turbulent past? On the one hand, after decades of fighting, this volatile state has witnessed watershed elections and important infrastructure rebuilding; while much work remains, significant progress in human rights, political and economic reform and infrastructure has been achieved. On the other hand, a number of extremely disturbing counterveiling trends are evident: the actual influence and control of the new, democratically elected government of Hamid Karzai extends only weakly beyond the outskirts of Kabul; ethno-linguistic fragmentation is on the rise; an increasingly sophisticated insurgency threatens stability; large areas of Afghanistan are still ruled by warlords/druglords; and, possibly most damning for the long-term stabilization of Afghanistan, the country is fast approaching narco-state status with its opium crop and transport representing 35–60 per cent of the country’s licit GDP. Current estimates posit that approximately 87 per cent of the world’s heroin is produced in Afghanistan. Most troubling of these trends is the persistence of old patterns of identity politics in the seemingly new Afghan context. This paper assesses the effectiveness of the ‘post-conflict’ political transition process that created the Kabul regime. Specifically, this paper will review and critique the Bonn Agreement and Process—the major driver for Afghanistan’s post-conflict transition; assess the current situation in Afghanistan, and examine prospects for Afghan democratization, development and stability. It will identify the opportunities and obstacles generated from Afghanistan’s transition for peace, stability and nation building after three decades of state failure. Central Asian Survey (March–June 2006) 25(1–2), 1–26